The Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK’s statistics agency, publishes its monthly GDP estimate for September tomorrow, Thursday, at 07:00 UK time. GDP is the output-based measure of the size and growth of the economy. The release also carries the first estimate of third-quarter growth. It turns on whether production, which carried August, holds up while services stay flat.
Key points
- Release at 07:00 UK time tomorrow
- Previous reading: August GDP up 0.1%
- Services showed no growth in August
- Calendar estimate for September: 0.0%
What the last reading showed
Monthly GDP grew 0.1% in August, seasonally adjusted (smoothed for regular calendar effects), the ONS said on 15 October. July was unrevised at 0.4% and June was revised up to 0.4% from 0.3%.
The ONS said August was driven by production, meaning manufacturing, mining, energy and water, which rose 0.8%. Services showed no growth and construction fell 0.2%. Construction has now fallen for four consecutive months.
The ONS cautions that monthly growth rates can be volatile and should be read alongside the three-month rate. GDP rose 0.7% in the three months to August against the three months to May, the eighth consecutive three-month rise.
What to expect
The ONS does not publish a forecast alongside the release. The only figures available are calendar estimates whose source and sample size are not stated. They put September monthly growth at 0.0% and third-quarter growth at 0.7% on the previous quarter, against 0.5% before.
| Measure | Previous (August 2026) | Calendar estimate (September) |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly GDP (m/m) | +0.1% | 0.0% |
| Three-month rolling GDP | +0.7% | No estimate |
| Services (m/m) | 0.0% | No estimate |
| Production (m/m) | +0.8% | -0.3% |
| Construction (m/m) | -0.2% | -0.1% |
The Bank of England raised the Bank Rate to 4.00% from 3.75% last Thursday. A weaker print than the calendar estimate would test that decision, and a stronger one would support it. Sterling is the quickest read: GBPUSD was quoted at 1.3323 at about 9:30 am today, delayed, down 0.15% from the previous close.
What to watch
- Production: August’s 0.8% rise is the line to compare against the calendar estimate of -0.3%.
- Services: the ONS’s real-time indicators pointed to weaker consumer demand and housing in September, so check whether the 0.0% in August is repeated or improved.
- Revisions: any change to August’s 0.1% or to July and June’s 0.4%.