My subjective perspective on the crypto space:
1. Core Assets
$BTC and $ETH have consistently proven their foundational status across multiple market cycles. As the primary beta exposure in crypto, Bitcoin offers relatively lower volatility with high certainty, while Ethereum exhibits higher volatility and unpredictable behavior—but carries far greater imaginative potential (Figure 1: ETH).
2. Legacy Altcoins
From Bitcoin’s rally from 57K to 87K, it’s clear many legacy altcoins have been left behind—DOGE, XRP, ADA, BCH, ETC, LTC, and others.
What does “left behind” mean? Bitcoin’s cycles are long; altcoin cycles are short. If an altcoin fails to significantly outperform Bitcoin during periods of BTC strength, positive market sentiment, and widespread FOMO, it’s already dead. As traders gain access to more tradable assets (e.g., U.S. equities) and crypto issuance methods diversify, these legacy coins face slow, inevitable decline—not sudden death, but steadily diminishing capital attention. ETC and LTC already show signs of their terminal fate.
3. Exchange Tokens
Platform tokens like $BNB and $HYPE are entirely tied to their parent platforms. If you’re considering allocating to them, ask only one question: Will they significantly outperform BTC or ETH during your intended trading cycle? If not, there’s little point. Platform backing brings advantages—but also risks: platforms can collapse. Who still remembers $FTT from the FTX bankruptcy?
4. Pump-and-Dump Coins
Every cycle—without exception—produces new altcoins that surge. I categorize them into Western and Asian groups.
Western: Examples include $ZEC, $NEAR, and last cycle’s KAS, RNDR, etc. These typically have long-term positioning, extended growth cycles, and may ride an entire bull market. Their manipulation cycles span 1–2 years or even longer—these are the absolute premium ALPHA plays during bull markets.
Asian: I won’t elaborate—there are too many. Their manipulation cycles range from months to mere minutes. Personally, I leave this money to the P-generals.
5. Back to Core
As exchanges evolve, we now have more strategies beyond futures—options, ETFs, 2X ETFs, DATs—all centered around core assets.
6. Still the E-Warden!