Republican Senator Dan Sullivan clawed back ground on Democrat Mary Peltola in the tight Alaska Senate race on Wednesday but suffered a setback in one of the state’s GOP strongholds.
Of the 5,578 additional votes reported, Sullivan added 2,836 to Peltola’s 2,561 to tighten his deficit to his Democratic rival to 3,975. However, an analyst pointed out he would have been hoping to gain a larger share, given most of the absentee ballots came from Matanuska-Susitna borough.
The southcentral Alaska region known as Mat-Su is often described as one of the “reddest” in the state because of its long-standing pattern of strongly conservative and Republican voting in both statewide and local politics.
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The conservative identity of the state was particularly evident in 2024, when all candidates competing for legislative seats in Mat-Su Borough districts on the November general-election ballot were Republicans, according to Alaska Beacon. This quirk was made possible by the state’s top-four primary system, which allows multiple candidates from the same party to advance to the general election.
Zachary Donnini, head of data science at VoteHub, said on X on November 11 that the ballot count “was actually a very poor update for Sullivan.”
“Most of these absentee ballots came from Mat-Su, Alaska’s reddest region and his strongest remaining source of votes,” Donnini wrote. “They simply weren’t red enough. His victory path is close to nonexistent at this point.”
“There was just a little from Peltola’s base in AK HD 39–it was D+50 and offset most of Sullivan’s gains,” he added.
With 86 percent of votes counted, Peltola was still ahead with 48.9 percent of the vote to Sullivan’s 47.3 percent. Her lead is now less than the 4,100 votes cast for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. of Petersburg, whose candidacy in the election has been hotly disputed.
Yet Peltola’s team pointed to the Mat-Su results as evidence of their campaign’s strength.
“As Mary continues to overperform in traditionally conservative areas around the state, today’s ballot drop is yet another proof point that Sullivan’s path to victory is non-existent,” Alaskans for Mary campaign manager Cheryl Bruce said in a statement shared with Newsweek.
“We anticipated far stronger support for Sullivan coming from the Mat-Su area, and by only chipping away 275 votes, it is clear that Sullivan’s remaining pockets of support are getting smaller by the day,” Bruce added.
“Voters are choosing Alaska first over party. As we’ve said, tens of thousands of outstanding early votes and absentee ballots from Anchorage and rural Alaska remain uncounted and will break for Mary, sending her to the United States Senate.”
In a statement shared on Wednesday and quoted by Alaska Public Media, Sullivan spokesperson Nate Adams said: “There’s a long way to go before every Alaskan’s voice is heard.”
Newsweek contacted Sullivan’s campaign for comment by email on Thursday morning.
Where the Latest Vote Count Leaves the Second Sullivan Controversy
Much of the debate around the Alaska Senate race in the weeks leading up to Election Day has centered on the candidacy of a namesake challenger to the incumbent, Sullivan Jr.
A former member of the recently dissolved Alaska Independence Party, the retired teacher registered as a Republican only when he filed his candidacy in June, fueling suspicions that he was a spoiler candidate.
Alaska election officials concluded earlier this year that Sullivan Jr.’s candidacy was not genuine, but his name was reinstated on the ballot in June after an Alaska trial court ruled against that exclusion and the Alaska Supreme Court summarily affirmed that decision.
Sullivan’s allies, including President Donald Trump, were enraged by the man’s presence on the ballot on Election Day, even as election officials listed the two Sullivans very differently. The Republican senator was listed as “Dan Sullivan,” specifying he was the “incumbent” and was affiliated with the Republican Party. Sullivan Jr. was listed as “Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.,” with no party affiliation.
Trump ordered the Justice Department to file a lawsuit last month seeking to block the certification of the race’s results if the number of votes cast for Sullivan Jr. could have changed the outcome. The lawsuit was later amended to include claims made by a former Peltola staffer reported by The New York Times, saying that people associated with the Democrat’s campaign and Democratic operatives had been involved in efforts to recruit candidates who could draw support from the Republican incumbent.
A fourth candidate, Gerald Heikes, also figured in allegations. He told The New York Times that a man approached him about running and offered to help his candidacy, though he said he did not remember the man’s name.
Peltola and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) denied any involvement in these alleged efforts to recruit a spoiler candidate.
While the Justice Department’s lawsuit was thrown out by a federal judge on November 1, Trump has continued lashing out against Sullivan Jr. and Democrats in Alaska, saying the election is “rigged” and votes cast for the retired teacher and Heikes should go to the incumbent instead.
“All votes going to the Fake Dan Sullivan, which was done solely for the purpose of fraud and confusion, should immediately be given to the Real Dan Sullivan (Senator!)—Likewise the votes of the second fraudulent candidate, also put up by the Dems,” the president wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday.
On Wednesday morning, Peltola’s lead was greater than the combined number of votes for Sullivan and Sullivan Jr. As of Thursday morning, that is no longer the case: Peltola has a total of 121,487 votes to Sullivan’s 117,512 and Sullivan Jr.’s 4,100.
Heikes, a drywall contractor who has repeatedly run for public office, had 5,426 — or 2.2 percent — of the total vote.
What Happens Next
If either Peltola or Sullivan secures at least 50 percent of the vote, they win outright. Otherwise, after the November 18 deadline for receiving ballots postmarked by November 3, the state will begin tabulating the results.
Under Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, if neither of the two candidates wins a majority of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated and ballots cast for that candidate are transferred to voters’ next choices. The process continues until one candidate has a majority.
The State of Alaska Division of Elections said its target date for certifying the race’s result is November 25.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Gray R. Thomas