No UK, US or euro-area rate decision is scheduled this week, which leaves UK inflation for October, due on Wednesday at 07:00 UK time, as the main event for UK traders. It follows Tuesday’s UK labour data and US retail sales. Friday’s session left the S&P 500 at 7,561.67, down 0.40%, and Germany’s DAX at 26,749.95, down 0.08%. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), the chipmaker, reports on Tuesday after the US close.
| Day and time (UK) | Event | Previous | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 13:30 | US Empire State manufacturing index, November | 25.5 | 18 |
| Tue 07:00 | UK unemployment rate, September | 4.7% | 4.7% |
| Tue 07:00 | UK average earnings excluding bonus, September | 3.7% | 3.6% |
| Tue 13:30 | US retail sales, October, month on month | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Tue 14:15 | US industrial production, October, month on month | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Wed 07:00 | UK CPI, October, year on year | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| Wed 07:00 | UK core CPI, October, year on year | 2.8% | None |
| Wed 07:00 | UK services inflation, October, year on year | 3.7% | None |
| Wed 13:30 | US housing starts, October | 1.221M | 1.268M |
| Thu 13:30 | US initial jobless claims | 200K | 196K |
| Thu 13:30 | US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, November | 20.9 | 18 |
| Fri 07:00 | UK retail sales, October, month on month | -0.4% | None |
| Fri 07:00 | UK retail sales excluding fuel, October, month on month | -0.7% | -0.1% |
| Fri 15:00 | US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, November | 48 | 52 |
Monday
- 00:01 UK: Rightmove house price index. Month on month previous 1%, year on year previous -0.1%, no estimate.
- 13:30 US: Empire State manufacturing index. Estimate 18, previous 25.5.
Tuesday
- 07:00 UK: unemployment rate, September. Estimate 4.7%, previous 4.7%.
- 07:00 UK: average earnings excluding bonus. Estimate 3.6%, previous 3.7%.
- 07:00 UK: claimant count change, previous 30.3K, no estimate; employment change, previous 102K, no estimate.
- 10:00 Germany: ZEW economic sentiment index. Previous 18.5, no estimate.
- 13:30 US: retail sales, October, month on month. Estimate 0.2%, previous 0.8%.
- 14:15 US: industrial production. Estimate 0.1%, previous 0.7%.
- 15:00 US: NAHB housing market index. Estimate 29, previous 29.
- Before the US open: Home Depot, the home improvement retailer. EPS estimate 3.87.
- After the US close: Nvidia. EPS estimate 2.49.
Wednesday
- 07:00 UK: CPI, October. Year on year estimate 3.7%, previous 3.5%; month on month estimate 0.5%, previous 0.4%. Core CPI previous 2.8% and services inflation previous 3.7%, no estimate for either.
- 13:30 US: housing starts. Estimate 1.268M, previous 1.221M.
- Before the US open: Target, Lowe’s and TJX. EPS estimates 2.03, 2.86 and 1.33.
Thursday
- 11:00 UK: CBI industrial orders. Previous -32, no estimate.
- 13:30 US: initial jobless claims. Estimate 196K, previous 200K.
- 13:30 US: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. Estimate 18, previous 20.9.
- Before the US open: Walmart. EPS estimate $0.64.
Friday
- 07:00 UK: retail sales, October, month on month. Previous -0.4%, no estimate; excluding fuel, estimate -0.1%, previous -0.7%.
- 15:00 Euro area: consumer confidence, flash estimate. Estimate -17.9, previous -17.9.
- 15:00 US: University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Estimate 52, previous 48.
The two that matter most
UK inflation is the week’s centrepiece because, with Bank Rate at 4%, price data and labour data are what shape expectations for the Bank of England’s next move, and through them sterling. The estimate is for annual CPI of 3.7% against 3.5% previously, and for a monthly rise of 0.5% against 0.4%. Tuesday’s labour figures come first, with unemployment expected to hold at 4.7% and earnings growth excluding bonus expected at 3.6%, down from 3.7%.
Across the Atlantic, Nvidia reports with an EPS estimate of 2.49, and Walmart (NYSE: WMT), the retailer, follows before Thursday’s open with an estimate of $0.64. Alongside Tuesday’s US retail sales, where the estimate is 0.2% after 0.8% previously, the two reports are the main read on US companies and consumers this week.
Earnings
Home Depot reports on Tuesday before the US open. Nvidia follows after the close. Target, Lowe’s and TJX report on Wednesday before the open, and Walmart on Thursday before the open. US markets run their usual hours, 14:30 to 21:00 UK time, with no closure this week.
Where rates stand going in
Bank Rate is 4%. The Federal Reserve’s target range is 3.75% to 4.00%. The European Central Bank’s deposit rate is 2.5%. None has a decision scheduled this week.