According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) November Oil Market Report, global oil consumption continues to be affected by high fuel prices and disruptions to exports of refined petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the Gulf, with shipments remaining at roughly half their pre-war levels.
However, the decline in demand is expected to ease toward the end of the year. After falling by 5 million barrels per day in the second quarter and 3.8 million in the third, demand is projected to decrease by 2.7 million barrels per day year-on-year in the fourth quarter.
The IEA expects global oil demand to return to growth around March 2027, with petrochemical feedstocks, including LPG, ethane, and naphtha, accounting for nearly 80% of the anticipated recovery.
Meanwhile, demand for transport fuels is likely to grow at a much slower pace as elevated fuel prices, the shift toward electric vehicles, and improvements in fuel efficiency continue to affect consumption.
The agency also forecasts that the global oil market will return to a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026, with an even larger supply surplus expected in 2027.
However, the IEA warned that continued attacks on shipping and threats to maritime security could undermine the recovery of global oil markets.
On the supply side, worldwide oil production increased by 2.3 million barrels per day in October, reaching 105.4 million barrels per day, following a 3 million barrel-per-day rise in September.
The increase was largely driven by stronger oil exports from the Gulf, despite ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and tankers.
The latest figures prompted the IEA to raise its supply forecast for the final quarter of 2026. At the same time, the agency lowered its outlook for 2027 due to restrictions affecting Iranian oil shipments.
After an estimated decline of 4.8 million barrels per day in 2026, global oil supply is projected to recover by 6.6 million barrels per day in 2027, averaging 108.1 million barrels per day.
Earlier, Qazinform reported KazTransOil increased oil transportation by 1.3 million tons in 10 months of 2026.