Trucks cross in to the U.S. on the Gordie Howe International bridge. This month, voters handed Trump an enormous electoral reversal – and tariffs, particularly those on Canada, were a big part of the reason for the drubbing, Keller writes.JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP/Getty Images
After two years of war – a U.S. invasion of Canada, Canadian counterattacks, cities burned, economies devastated and Americans questioning the point of it all – the War of 1812 ended with the United States agreeing to return to the status quo ante.
That’s a fancy Latin term for “things going back to the way they were.”
After two years of trade war – U.S. tariffs, Canadian countermeasures, industries kneecapped, prices jacked up and U.S. voters questioning the point of it all – are the stars aligning for an echo of 1814 in 2027?
Could Washington agree to a return to the status quo ante of free trade?
After what happened this month in the midterms, it’s no longer impossible.
But before I get to prospects for the future, more on parallels to the past.
In 1812, U.S. president James Madison declared war and attacked Canada. He aimed to make us part of the United States. Thomas Jefferson thought that victory would be “a mere matter of marching.”
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What critics called “Mr. Madison’s War” was widely unpopular, particularly in states that traded heavily with its target. Invading Canada also turned out to be no cakewalk. After battlefield reversals, Washington signed the Treaty of Ghent. The pre-war border became the postwar border. Status quo ante.
In the fall of 2024, even before he was sworn in, U.S. President Donald Trump began threatening a trade war against Canada. He launched it upon taking office.
He mused about erasing the border and turning us into the 51st state. But he mostly worked to thicken the economic border through tariffs. Canadian automobiles, car parts, steel, aluminum and lumber top the list of targeted industries. This aims to force Canadian industries to relocate to the U.S.
But this month, voters handed Mr. Trump an enormous electoral reversal – and tariffs, particularly those on Canada, were a big part of the reason for the drubbing.
The new political realities are very much to Canada’s benefit. Let us count the ways.
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First: A docile Republican Congress will be replaced in January by large Democratic majorities in both houses.
Second: The Democrats’ victory, and its remarkable extent, was driven by voter fury over affordability. Voters believe that Mr. Trump’s policies have made their lives less affordable; his policies most associated with high prices are the war against Iran and tariffs.
Third: Tariffs on Canada have far more public prominence than those on any other country. Voters are well aware of them, and mostly opposed.
They have been far more extensively covered in the U.S. media than any other Trump trade war, and more consistently criticized. Democratic candidates for Congress ran against them, but so did some Republicans.
The fact that several Republicans spoke out against a signature Trump policy – even taking out ads to disassociate themselves from Dear Leader’s actions – shows the fading of Mr. Trump’s iron grip on his party. It also shows the unpopularity of a trade war on Canada.
Fourth: Americans have always seen Canada as a best friend, ally and paragon of decency. Mr. Trump’s characterization of Canada as economic enemy No. 1 has persuaded a minority of the MAGA faithful, but the vast majority of Americans find the idea insane. Many can also cite personal examples of how Mr. Trump’s trade war on Canada has raised their costs or hamstrung their business.
Fifth: U.S. industry is broadly opposed to tariffs on Canada. We’re America’s biggest and best customer, particularly for manufactured goods.
A thicker border raises the cost of producing cars in North America while shrinking the market, which will harm sales in both countries. Tariffs on Canadian aluminum impose extra costs on U.S. manufacturers. Tariffs on Canadian lumber make home building more expensive. And so on.
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Canada should be pitching Americans – the White House, Congress and above all the American people – on a return to the status quo ante: Canada-U.S. free trade.
That means full respect for the United States-Canada-Mexico Agreement, or at least the parts governing Canada-U.S. trade. No new deal is needed. The U.S. simply has to return to honouring the one we have, with zero-per-cent tariffs on almost all goods.
That’s what the Carney government should be aiming for. It’s a stretch goal that just became less of a stretch.
With an incoming Democratic congressional majority opposed to Mr. Trump’s trade war on Canada, many Republicans similarly inclined and most voters onside, it’s no longer a pipe dream.
This happy outcome is not imminent. Nor is it inevitable. But an end to the U.S. trade war on Canada just entered the realm of the possible.