🧭 $ETH at -3.6% with price still capped under the lower high
– Price is still capped under the 1988.57 lower high after the bounce off 1911.49, so I am bearish on this 1h while daily stays aligned lower versus a bullish weekly backdrop that makes this a counter-trend short needing extra confirmation. Quiet 0.22x volume and a still-sub-EMA20/200 regime keep the recovery looking corrective, not a regime shift.
– I expect a first probe back toward 1911 then 1902 if 1959–1970 fails to hold as resistance; only after that would 1875 come into play as the next liquidity pocket. Protection belongs beyond a close through 1988.57, not a fixed tick stop.
– Shorts belong near 1959–1970 only after a rejection wick, bearish engulf, or lower-timeframe break of that mini-range; skip chasing mid-candle. First take-profit 1911, then 1902, then 1875 in that order if momentum stays offered.
– Taker buys and a 1.91 top-trader long tilt fight the tape, so wait for that flow to fade or for a clear sweep of 1911 before adding size; funding staying slightly positive does not override lower highs. BTC still bearish on this timeframe adds another reason not to fade the short bias early.
– Invalidation is a 1h close above 1988.57, which would flip this structure bullish and force me to stand aside rather than hunt 2103. Until that close prints, I treat rallies into 1970 as sell-side liquidity, not a new impulse.
– A failed reclaim of 1970 that prints a lower high under 1988 is the cleanest continuation tell; if weekly bulls defend 1875 hard, I still only cover, I do not flip long until the 1988.57 close actually happens.
📊 Flow: OI $4.55B (-3.7% 24h) · funding +0.0014% · taker 1.49× · 🐋 ~1m: $17.5M buy / $1.7M sell
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