Gold futures fell nearly 3% on Thursday to their lowest in more than a year, retreating well below the $4,000 level as Treasury yields, the dollar, and oil prices all gained after President Trump said the U.S. does not need a peace deal with Iran.
Oil rose in reaction to Trump’s social media comments, fanning inflationary fears and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer.
Traders now see an 87% chance of a 25-bp rate hike in December, while the probability of a larger 50-bp move also increased, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.
A stronger-than-expected report earlier this week on U.S. consumer prices, recent hawkish remarks from Fed officials, and a U.S. dollar rally to a near 19-month high “are working to press the gold market lower,” American Gold Exchange market analyst Jim Wyckoff said in a note.
As the market weighs the possibility of the Fed making a 50-bp rate increase in December, even while not the main scenario, “it still provides some support for the U.S. dollar and pushes bond yields higher, putting simultaneous pressure on gold,” XS.com market analyst Linh Tran wrote.
Front-month Comex gold 
XAUUSD for November delivery plunged 2.8% to $3,878.40/oz, its lowest settlement value since October 2, 2025, and front-month Comex silver 
XAGUSD for November delivery fell 3.7% to $49.972/oz.
YTD, gold and silver have now declined 10.3% and 28.7%, respectively.
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