What will science look like in 2050? Drawing on a structured foresight process, this report explores four possible futures and asks what the EU must do now to thrive in any of them. The scenarios are shaped by two questions: Who funds and controls research – states or private actors? And is science organised centrally or in a distributed way?
In ‘Grand Project State’, science revolves around state-directed megaprojects addressing defined priorities at continental scale. In ‘Platform Science’, a handful of tech-industrial conglomerates operate the dominant research infrastructure. In ‘Commons Network’, public funding flows into open, decentralised infrastructure used by universities, civic labs and NGOs. And in ‘Frontier Archipelago’, science fragments into start-ups, decentralised autonomous organisations, independent labs and individual researchers, funded by venture and community capital.
The window for action is open now. Europe’s choice will shape which future emerges. Eight lessons should inform the EU’s 2028–2034 Multiannual Financial Framework and the next Framework Programme. First, competitiveness and security are not enough; curiosity-driven research keeps Europe future-proof. Second, trust in science will be more precious, making metascience and the validation of AI-generated findings a priority. Third, a public R&I investment target of 3% of GDP would provide a solid foundation. Fourth, European Partnerships and clarity on the roles of the Framework Programme and the European Competitiveness Fund are essential. Fifth, talent will decide Europe’s position in every future. Sixth, science must remain a global public good. Seventh, coordination across governance levels is vital to achieve critical mass. Finally, the Framework Programme remains the anchor for all of this.