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Nexa Resources reported third quarter 2026 production with zinc at 84.9 kt, copper at 6.0 kt, silver at 2.9 MMoz, lead at 18.3 kt and gold at 7.8 koz, alongside confirmed full year 2026 production and sales guidance and expectations for a stronger fourth quarter.
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Despite a net loss of US$47 million driven by a non cash impairment on Brazilian smelting assets, Nexa Resources generated US$937 million in third quarter net revenues and US$301 million in adjusted EBITDA, while raising 2026 capital expenditure guidance to US$420 million to support projects such as the Cerro Pasco Integration Project.
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The focus now shifts to how Nexa Resources’ adjusted EBITDA, supported by higher metal prices, may influence the existing investment narrative around the stock.
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Nexa Resources Investment Narrative Recap
To stay invested in Nexa Resources, you really need to believe in its zinc centric mining and smelting platform, plus the payoff from Aripuana, Cerro Pasco and lower Cerro Lindo streaming over time. The latest quarter showed that higher metal prices can move adjusted EBITDA quickly, although the non cash impairment and high debt keep financial risk in focus.
The key short term swing factor is still operational stability and volumes, especially as Aripuana ramps and Brazilian smelting assets absorb the impairment. The biggest immediate risk is execution against heavy 2026 capex and leverage targets, and this update does not fundamentally change that equation.
The confirmation of 2026 production and sales guidance, together with expectations for a stronger fourth quarter, is the update that matters most for this story. It indicates that the operating plan behind the analyst consensus Narrative on Simply Wall St, which emphasizes earnings growth from existing assets rather than aggressive volume upgrades, remains in place.
In terms of catalysts, the unchanged full year guidance links directly to the Aripuana ramp up, Cerro Pasco work and the Cerro Lindo silver stream step down. The higher capex budget highlights how much cash must be reinvested in the business. On the risk side, a weaker fourth quarter than management expects, cost pressure or delays at key projects could challenge both that Narrative and the deleveraging ambitions.
Nexa Resources’ current earnings sit at US$277.6 million, with analysts projecting revenue to decline by 1.1% a year and consensus earnings of US$259.9 million on forecast revenues of US$3.3b by 2029. This implies an earnings reduction of about US$17.7 million by that year.
